Trump Declares “Forever” Ceasefire Between Israel and Iran — But Violations Follow

In a surprise declaration that could mark a major shift in Middle East dynamics, former U.S. President Donald Trump on June 24 announced what he called a “forever ceasefire” between Israel and Iran after nearly two weeks of escalating military confrontation. The announcement follows days of intense missile exchanges, cyberattacks, and airstrikes that pushed the region—and global markets—into a state of heightened alert.

Speaking from his campaign headquarters, Trump hailed the ceasefire as a “historic breakthrough,” emphasizing that both nations had agreed to halt offensive operations under what he termed a "mutually recognized ceasefire mechanism". “The era of endless fire and fury must come to a close,” Trump stated. “This is a symbolic end to retaliation and the beginning of renewed regional dialogue.”

Iran Strikes U.S. Base in Qatar Hours Before Ceasefire

However, the ceasefire announcement came just hours after Iran launched multiple missile salvos at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a critical U.S. military outpost hosting thousands of American personnel and aircraft. The Iranian missile barrage was framed as retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and strategic assets conducted earlier in the week.

According to Pentagon sources, no U.S. casualties were reported, although some infrastructure damage occurred. Trump dismissed Iran’s response as “largely symbolic,” and claimed it did not violate the spirit of the ceasefire, calling on both parties to “stand down and engage in restraint moving forward.”

Israel Claims Truce Breach, Orders Retaliatory Strike

Yet within hours of the ceasefire announcement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz accused Iran of violating the agreement, alleging that several short-range missiles had been launched from Iranian territory into Israeli airspace. In response, Israel ordered a fresh airstrike on strategic positions in Tehran, specifically targeting what it claimed were active missile launchers and military control centers.

“We remain committed to peace,” Katz said in a statement, “but we will not tolerate deception or token compliance. A ceasefire must be real, not rhetorical.”

Iran, in turn, denied any ceasefire violation, stating that the recent missile launches had been “pre-planned defensive maneuvers” that were unrelated to the ceasefire timeline. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry issued a formal complaint through Swiss intermediaries, accusing Israel of attempting to derail the ceasefire for domestic political gain.

NATO Reacts Cautiously; Markets See Temporary Relief

Leaders at the NATO summit in The Hague reacted with measured optimism, welcoming the announcement but urging both nations to respect diplomatic channels. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated, “We cautiously support any de-escalation, but meaningful peace requires consistent behavior, not sporadic restraint.”

The ceasefire had an immediate calming effect on global financial markets. Brent crude oil prices dropped over 4%, falling to near $66 per barrel as traders unwound risk premiums built during the height of the conflict. Gold prices declined more than 1%, hitting a two-week low amid diminishing demand for safe-haven assets. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against major currencies, while U.S. equity futures rose, led by gains in tech and consumer sectors. Defense stocks, which had surged amid war concerns, traded mixed as investors reassessed earnings prospects under de-escalation.

Market analysts noted that while the ceasefire brings temporary relief, its fragility is already evident. “Both sides are accusing each other of violations within hours,” said Miriam Levenstein, a geopolitical risk strategist with BlackRock. “That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the longevity of this agreement.”

Analysts Warn: Ceasefire May Be a Pause, Not Peace

Geopolitical and economic analysts agree that while Trump’s ceasefire announcement may lower immediate tensions, the underlying drivers of conflict remain unresolved. Iran’s insistence on maintaining aspects of its nuclear program and Israel’s continued pursuit of neutralizing Iranian influence across the region are inherently contradictory goals.

Moreover, the financial impact of the conflict lingers. Shipping costs and insurance premiums across the Persian Gulf remain elevated, and investment flows into emerging markets in the Middle East remain cautious. Central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, now face fresh challenges in interpreting inflation signals tied to oil fluctuations—especially as Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins his congressional testimony this week.

“There’s a real risk that even a short-term rebound in oil prices could disrupt efforts to tame inflation,” said Dana Morris, chief economist at Citigroup. “If the ceasefire collapses, those concerns come roaring back.”

The Path Ahead: Diplomacy or New Confrontation?

As global leaders, including U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, call for broader diplomatic efforts to formalize and monitor the ceasefire, many observers remain skeptical that a long-term peace is possible without direct U.S.–Iran negotiations and third-party mediation.

With tensions simmering just below the surface, the next 72 hours will likely determine whether the “forever ceasefire” lives up to its name—or becomes yet another fleeting pause in a decades-long shadow war.

News Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-pix-2025-06-24/ reuters.com